This post is to analyze in detail on how the weekly expiry started and how it developed and how it ended. The intention of this post is to just learn from the market every week so that we can react better to the data points that come in future.
We will go in a chronological way detailing how each day has panned out.
Day 1 – 8th July 2021
NF opened the day at 15852 and had a OAIR > Dull opening action.
On 8th July two important positions have been created one at 10AM in 15800CE at a price of 129 and another position in the noon at 2.10-2.40PM in 15700CE at 119-122.
The day in terms of structure was a trending day down with day’s highest volumes seen in H & L periods whose traded prices are 15780-15744 and 15744-15702 respectively of which the H period had clear domination of sellers and L period was a consolidation.
Positions behaviour
15800CE – Entry 129 Close 70 ( Sellers in Control)
15700CE – Entry 119-122 Close 119 (Buyers in control)
Value area – 15701-15743-15807 Range – 15889.9-15694.05
Day 1 outcome – TREND – Down Resistance 15744F and 15780F
Day 2 – 9th July 2021
Opening Action – OAOR continuation of imbalance.
On 9th July we had two important positions one in 15700PE at 127 and another in 15600CE at 140 as seen below.
The day in terms of stucture was a Normal Variation day – UP with A period having the highest volumes with no followup and range of 15701-15636F with the rest of the day being dull and close at VPOC indicating a balance.
Positions Behaviour
15600CE Entry – 139-142 Close – 152 (Buyers in control)
15700CE Entry – 119-122 Close – 90 ( Sellers in Control)
15700PE Entry – 127 Close – 75 (Sellers in Control)
Value Area 15678-15723-15732 Range – 15755-15641
Day 2 outcome – TREND – BALANCE Important low 15641 because of highest volume and no retest.
Day 3 – July 12th 2021
Day opened higher and OAOR > dull action.
Again a follow-up addition is seen in 15600CE almost near to previous levels of 140 now at 146.
Day structure was Neutral Centre day (Indecisive) Double distribution day.
Highest volume traded in I period during the same time 15600CE position has comeup but the previous low from 9/07 A period was held.
Positions Behaviour
15700PE – Entry 127 Close- 66 ( Second successive negative close)
15600 CE – Entry 140 Close – 135 (Second successive positive close)
15700CE – Entry – 120 Close – 67
Value Area – 15662-15712-15781 Range – 15811.9-15657.5
Day 3 – Outcome – Rejection to go higher but also didn’t break the previous low of 9/07 kind of a balance.
Day 4 – July 13th 2021
Opened higher and had OAIR > Signs of balance.
No new weekly options positions seen.
Day structure is a clean balance Neutral Extreme – UP with a muted action for the entire day and a failed auction in D period at 15758.
Positions behaviour
15600CE – Entry 140 Close 220 ( Buyers in Control)
Value Area – 15787-15817-15841 Range – 15842-15758
Day 4 Outcome – Balance with higher value after a restest of low means upside reversal also confirmed by position in 15600CE
Day 5 – July 14th 2021
OAIR with not much volumes.
Position builtup in 15500CE from 330-370 ( Buyers in control)
Day structure – Normal variation day with not much volumes – Possibly continuation of previous trend.
Positions Behaviour
15600CE – Entry 140 Close – 240
15500CE – Entry 350 Close – 340
Value Area – 15816-15851-15891 Range – 15893-15777
Day 5 Outcome – TREND – UP continuation of trend with not much followup volumes but a fresh position in 15500CE
The Expiry Day – 15th July 2021
Open drive up – Continuation of UP trend not much volumes.
No fresh positions created for upcoming expiry yet.
Day structure – Normal Variation Day Highest volume traded 15948 important level 15918
ValueArea – 15926-15937-15960 Range – 15967-15866
Day outcome – Continuation of UPTREND no nearby support and no fresh positions